
(Updated Oct. 17, 2014)
In 19 days, residents will cast their votes on the legalization of recreational marijuana sales in Alaska and Oregon, on the legalization of marijuana possession and home cultivation in the District of Columbia, and on the legalization of medical marijuana in Florida. Less than a month out, let's take a look at the most recent polls:
D.C.
Two September polls came up with conflicting perspectives on voters' current mindset regarding Initiative 71. According to an NBC4/Washington Post/Marist poll, voters support the initiative by "an almost 2-to-1 margin."
But according to the DC Cannabis Campaign nearly 2 of every 3 D.C. voters (65 percent) support Initiative 71.
Oregon
New update, Oct. 16, 2014: A new survey on Oregon's ballot measures up for vote in November shows that only one has majority support: marijuana legalization, reports Oregon Live: "Support for the marijuana measure has appeared to solidify during the fall as proponents have spent heavily on TV advertising while opponents have run only a bare-bones campaign. At this point, 52 percent support Measure 91 while 41 percent are opposed."
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Oregon has been widely reported as unpredictable. An article posted Sept. 25, KATU in Portland, reported that "a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU showed that Oregonians back legalizing recreational marijuana, with 44 percent of likely voters supporting it and 40 percent opposed."
The poll also found that among seniors (age 65 and older), supporters trailed opponents of Measure 91 by 28 points, whereas "voters age 50-64 support it by a margin of 13 points, and it leads by 11 points among those 35-49.”
With a majority vote needed, voter turnout and some undecided voters could tip the scales in either direction.
Alaska
Alaska Dispatch News reported on two polls released Oct. 8 that showed significantly conflicting numbers on whether or not Alaska voters would support recreational marijuana legalization.
The first poll, conducted by Dittman Research, "found 53 percent of respondents said they would vote no on Ballot Measure 2 -- which asks Alaska voters if recreational marijuana should be legalized -- if the vote were held today. Dittman said 43 percent would vote yes, with another 4 percent undecided." (It is important to note that, according to Alaska Dispatch News, the poll was paid for by “Big Marijuana. Big Mistake. Vote No on 2,” the campaign opposing the measure.)
The second poll, conducted by pollster Ivan Moore, found that 57 percent of voters said they support the measure, while almost 39 percent oppose it. Even with a margin of error of 4 percent, Moore's findings still place the majority in favor of Ballot Measure 2.
Florida
Flash back to Spring 2014 when "84% of voters over 65 support Amendment 2," according to a Quinnipiac University poll. Florida was well on its way to legalizing medical marijuana.
But, a new SurveyUSA/WFLA poll found that number has dropped significantly. According to the poll, just "56 percent of voters plan to support Amendment 2, while 31 percent plan to vote against it. The remaining 13 percent are still undecided," reported JustSayNow.com.
If the newer numbers are correct, Florida's medical marijuana initiative may be a no-go, even though they still show a majority support the Amendment. Unlike Alaska, Oregon and D.C. (which require only a majority of over 50 percent), Florida needs a vote of at least 60 percent in order to pass the legislation. The undecided vote could, again, tip the scales in the Sunshine State.