For the U.S. cannabis industry, this past year underwent some key changes, from the good to the bad to somewhere in between. Oversaturation, price compression and failed cannabis legislation rippled across many states, and M&A activity ticked up as price compression and oversupply trends hurt the bottom lines of some cannabis businesses.
Some bright moments peered through the clouds, though. Several cannabis leaders from throughout North America shared how 2025 saw more mainstream acceptance of cannabis, and convenient formats, such as pre-rolls, surged across their product line.
But what stood out to many leaders CBT spoke to was the executive order signed Dec. 18 by President Trump signing an executive to expedite his administration to reclassify cannabis to a Schedule III drug. “That is a game changer,” said one executive.
While 2025 had its share of challenges, the year ahead has room for the cannabis industry to mature, these industry specialists shared.
Here are key 2025 takeaways and 2026 goals and predictions from:
· LeVar Thomas, co-CEO and co-founder, Silly Nice
· Robert Groesbeck, co-CEO, Planet 13
· Robin Goldstein, Ph.D., director of the Cannabis Economics Group, an economist in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis, and co-author of “Can Legal Weed Win?: The Blunt Realities of Cannabis Economics”
· Megan McCrae, senior vice president, Corporate Strategy & International Growth, Organigram Global
· George Archos, founder, Chairman and CEO, Verano
LeVar Thomas and Shane Breen, Silly NicePhoto courtesy Silly Nice
2025 takeaways:
“The past year was about proving ourselves, learning fast, and earning trust the hard way in a very competitive market. What stood out most was seeing repeat customers seek us out by name, which told us the work and the care we put into each batch really mattered.
Smaller brands that survived stayed disciplined about spending. We didn’t chase every industry event or trend. We focused on educating customers, supporting dispensaries with real marketing, and making sure the product spoke for itself. That focus kept us lean and effective.
2025 was a reality check for the cannabis industry, with a lot of overbuilt operations struggling while smaller, disciplined brands had to stay lean and focused. The highlights were better conversations around reform and transparency, and the lowlights were how hard it still is for small operators to survive without fair access to shelf space, capital and relief from outdated regulations.
"We think brands that focus on quality, trust, and real customer relationships will grow while those built only on hype or scale will continue to struggle. Hype doesn’t last."
- LeVar Thomas
The METRC rollout has been a major challenge. [Author’s note: The-seed-to-sale tracking system has been criticized for high operational costs.] Dispensaries slowed ordering because of uncertainty, and the cost and volume of required tags doesn’t make sense. For small brands already operating on thin margins, that kind of bureaucracy adds unnecessary pressure. There has to be a more practical system.”
2026 hopes and predictions:
“In 2026, it’s been a learning curve. This is our first brand in a massive, complex market. Everyone has been figuring it out in real time. We’re constantly learning, adjusting, and improving, and we expect things to mature as [New York] operators get more experienced and systems improve.
We think brands that focus on quality, trust, and real customer relationships will grow while those built only on hype or scale will continue to struggle. Hype doesn’t last. … When the product doesn’t live up to the messaging, customers move on quickly.
What I’d like to see happen in New York and cannabis is another look at shelf space. Small New York brands should have more room to compete instead of being crowded out by large, out-of-state brands with 20-plus SKUs. Give local operators a real opportunity to be seen and chosen.”
Robert Groesbeck, Planet 13Photo courtesy Planet 13
2025 takeaways:
“2025 was an incredibly challenging year for Planet 13. In Florida, for instance, the failure of the recreational marijuana ballot question in November of 2024 had a significant negative impact on many of the operators, including P13, that expended significant capital resources to add stores and supply to meet the anticipated increase in demand from adult-use cannabis. This, in turn, forced operators who had built up inventories to heavily discount to reduce supply. Although good for consumers, this put additional strain on internal margins and profitability.
In Nevada, P13’s largest market historically, the local economy contracted considerably. Tourist counts and average spend dropped, too. The combination of locals with less disposable income and the drop in tourist customers (roughly 80% of all sales at the superstore being derived from non-Nevadans), had an appreciable hit to the company’s bottom line.
2025 was difficult for the entire sector. Higher costs with price compression in most markets created historic challenges for operators. The prior administration did the industry no favors either. Empty rhetoric and false promises resulted in continued uncertainty, which caused investors, both institutional and retail, to flee from the sector.”
2026 hopes and predictions:
“President Trump’s EO [executive order] was a huge and much needed step in the right direction, although it was bereft on specifics, which did little to allay investor/market concerns. The markets will remain choppy.
"The outlook for the industry is nothing but positive if these pieces fall into place."
- Robert Groesbeck
The sector will see significant growth in 2026 if the Trump Administration can provide much-needed clarification to the EO. Safe banking and 280E guidance, for instance, will fundamentally change the industry for the better. In turn, access to capital at reasonable rates will greatly stimulate growth. M&A activity will increase dramatically, too. The outlook for the industry is nothing but positive if these pieces fall into place.”
Robin Goldstein, Cannabis Economics GroupPhoto courtesy Robin Goldstein
2025 takeaways:
“I think the biggest story of 2025, which is really a story that's been building, is cannabis versus hemp, and the way that hemp emerged as a legitimate second form of legal weed across the country. It began as a niche thing, a few states were doing it, and there was THCA in Tennessee, there was some vapes and gummies out there, Delta 8, Delta 10, and so on and then all hell broke loose around 2023 and you had suddenly these huge legal weed markets, in Texas and Florida, where you have legitimately some of the biggest legal weed markets in the country.
"Let’s be honest about President Trump’s rescheduling announcement. Everyone thinks this is such a big deal, but it’s just lip service."
- Robin Goldstein
What's interesting is that, you know, a lot of people in the cannabis world, or I think to some extent in even cannabis media, they don’t take hemp very seriously in the way that they need to. This year, we saw even more hemp beverages and, to some extent, gummies being sold in ordinary retail stores. This was a new experiment in the history of legal weed because in every single state that’s ever legalized recreational, all we have is a single-purpose, special purpose retail model. Dispensaries, believe it or not, are an extension of a very antiquated kind of business model. Do you know any store where they just sell only one thing to consumers?
Let’s be honest about President Trump’s rescheduling announcement. Everyone thinks this is such a big deal, but it’s just lip service. In the election cycles, Trump, Biden and Harris were saying that they favored legal weed, not just rescheduling. The elimination of 280E is a big deal to help companies with their tax savings. But let’s say, in California, they suddenly lowered the excise tax from 15% to 5%. It’s a tax benefit but it doesn't legalize their activities when it comes to something crucial like interstate commerce. We are still going to be left with this patchwork of dozens of different states, each with their own rules.”
2026 hopes and predictions:
“Once the floodgates break with interstate commerce, then you're going to have interstate competition, and it's going to be a race to the bottom on prices. That could break open the national market in many ways.
I’d like to see a separate Congressional order focused on this issue. The good businesses that succeed are going to benefit a lot because they’re going to be able to be run much more efficiently when they are getting supplies from the places where those things are grown the most, just like in a normal agricultural industry. Tobacco and strawberries are only grown in a few states, and most of the other states import them, and that should happen with the cannabis industry.”
Megan McCrae, Organigram GlobalPhoto courtesy Organigram
2025 takeaways:
“Concretely, the year was defined by meaningful milestones. We completed the acquisition of Motif, strengthening our position in vapes and infused pre-rolls and we are beginning to realize operational and cost synergies. Internationally, the business continued to scale, with international wholesale revenue more than nearly tripling year over year reinforcing the importance of diversification beyond the Canadian market.
We also entered the U.S. market through the acquisition of Collective Project, which marked our first step into cannabis beverages, and followed that with the launch of happly, establishing a foothold in the U.S. hemp-derived THC space.
On the innovation front, we remained focused on technologies that deliver tangible consumer benefits. The launch of FAST, supported by a landmark clinical trial of our nano-emulsion technology, demonstrated our commitment to science-led innovation that delivers faster onset and more predictable effects, not innovation for its own sake.
2025 was another important year of recalibration for the Canadian cannabis sector. The industry continued to move away from early growth expectations toward a more mature, performance-driven reality. Consumer demand held up, but the competitive environment remained fierce, which kept the focus squarely on fundamentals: disciplined execution, operational efficiency, and building brands that can win consistently at retail.
"We also expect growing momentum in ready-to-consume formats and products that [offer] convenience for consumers including pre-roll, edible and vape innovations ...."
- Megan McCrae
Last year showed cannabis continuing to become ‘mainstream.’ In our “Canadians on Cannabis” research with Abacus Data (fielded late June to early July 2025), 35% of Canadian adults reported using cannabis in the past six months and 32% in the past two weeks, rising to 50% among Canadians aged 18 to 44. That steady participation reinforces that demand is durable, even as the operating environment remains highly competitive.
At the same time, 2025 continued to be defined by pressure on the business model. Price compression put margins under strain and pushed licensed producers to tighten portfolio discipline, focus on productivity, and invest behind clearer brand roles and differentiated formats. With demand relatively steady, the competitive battleground increasingly becomes share, shelf space, and brand strength, rather than broad market expansion.”
2026 hopes and predictions:
“Heading into 2026, we expect the Canadian cannabis sector to continue stabilizing and behaving even more like a mature consumer category, where scale, operational experience, and focus become the clearest differentiators. Demand should remain stable, but the winners will be those that can convert that demand into sustainable profitability through consumer-centric innovation and flawless execution.
We expect undifferentiated flower to remain the most challenged area, particularly for brands without a clear value proposition or consistent quality. We also expect growing momentum in ready-to-consume formats and products that [offer] convenience for consumers including pre-roll, edible and vape innovations that reduce consumer pain points and offer more choice in terms of consumption methods.
What feels like it is cresting in the near term is a more disciplined approach to decision-making across the industry. The next phase of competition will be driven less by the number of launches and more by intentional portfolio choices, and a willingness to say no to ideas that do not align with long-term sustainability. For established producers, that means fewer, more purposeful launches, stronger focus behind the brands and formats that are already winning, and continuous improvement in productivity and quality.
Finally, as international markets continue to grow, 2026 should further sharpen the industry’s focus on building the capabilities and credibility required to participate in global growth over time.”
George Archos, VeranoPhoto courtesy Verano
2025 takeaways:
“Moving to Nevada was a big decision for us as we anticipated what was to come in the U.S. We see a few advantages being in the U.S., such as boosting our efficiency, being able to list on a U.S. exchange and taking advantage of the rescheduling momentum. This move is better for our employees and our shareholders.
Speaking of, we ended the year with the president's announcement on rescheduling cannabis, and that was something that we worked on very hard. It was an industry initiative, and we worked with other members to get that across the finish line, so having that executive order at the end of the year really catapults us in going into 2026 and has us feeling very confident about the industry.
"I also predict access to capital will get easier thanks to the rescheduling."
- George Archos
Last year, we saw more people consuming cannabis across a wider demographic, which shows the strength of cannabis as a product and how it continues to move forward. Cannabis has gained a lot of traction across almost every state.”
2026 hopes and predictions:
“I think there's always room for craft cannabis producers, similar to what we see in the beer industry. There are craft growers amongst all these big conglomerates because if someone's in one state and they’re producing a product that's local to that state, they tend to be successful. When you start to expand your wings and go into multiple states, obviously the business becomes more difficult. And that can hurt your business.
I also predict access to capital will get easier thanks to the rescheduling. I envision the rescheduling efforts giving way to more markets. States that never had cannabis programs will now start to seriously consider one, whether that’s medical or recreational. That transition is reflected in the polling we’ve seen where Americans keep saying positive things about the plant. And coming with that will be more investment dollars, too.
I think the formats that grew stronger in 2025 will continue to strengthen. While flower is still very popular, more people turned to pre-rolls, vapes and beverages than ever before. What used to be small categories are now no longer so small.
David Silverberg is a freelance journalist who writes about cannabis and the cannabis industry.
