The federal government estimates that the new legal retail cannabis market could capture about a quarter of total demand in the first month of legalization – and as much as three quarters by 2021-22.
A department of finance official, speaking on background, said the department “assumes” the legal retail market will “capture 25 per cent of total demand as of the first month of legalization.”
Then it expects the share to grow to 40 per cent by August 2019 – about a year after legalizing.
Eventually, finance estimates that number should rise to 75 per cent by 2021-22.
While the department didn’t share the calculations behind the projections, the official said they include various factors and is “consistent” with the experiences of other jurisdictions that have legalized cannabis.
