This Year’s 4/20 Poised to Be the Biggest Yet

This article was updated at 11:30 p.m. April 16 to include additional insights and predictions.

There are several reasons cannabis market analysts predict that this year’s 4/20 will be the biggest yet for sales.

First, the traditional cannabis industry holiday falls on a Saturday, which, on average, is the second biggest sales day of the week for most state-licensed retailers, according to market insights company BDSA. (Friday generally brings in the most sales.) 

In the past, consumers might not have been able to take advantage of promotions and sales on April 20 when it fell on a weekday, but a weekend celebration could be in store for many, according to Brightfield Group analysts.

And based on market performances in 2023 and year-to-date 2024, Brightfield Group expects both 4/20 dollar and unit sales to be the biggest ever when looking collectively at all markets they track, Matt Zehner, insights analyst at Brightfield, said.

“Despite several, more mature markets struggling over the last few years, adult-use cannabis sales in 2023 were still up by 19% compared to 2022, owing to growth in younger markets like New Jersey and New Mexico as well as new market openings that began sales in late 2022 or early 2023, such as Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, and Missouri,” Zehner told Cannabis Business Times. “While the market landscape in mature states such as Colorado is expected to remain difficult, adult-use cannabis sales across all states are expected to grow by a further 12% in 2024, bolstered by continued growth in the aforementioned states and the opening of Maryland.”

Even in adult-use markets that have faced significant price compression, this year’s 4/20 might be a bright spot amid difficult conditions with the right strategies in place, Brendan Mitchel-Chesebro, BDSA analyst, said.

“We've seen a lot of price compression in the industry over the past two years, but on a positive note, in the most mature markets, we are seeing prices start to stabilize. So, if retailers in those markets take a really targeted approach to pricing and promotions, we think that they can see a lot of success this 4/20,” Mitchel-Chesebro said.

In 2023, daily sales the week of 4/20, which landed on a Thursday, were 29% higher compared with other non-holiday weeks, according to BDSA insights. (Often, 4/20 promotions are offered throughout the week, not just on the day.) In 2022, when the holiday fell on a Wednesday, daily sales that week were up 23% compared to other non-holiday weeks that year.

When zeroing in on April 20, 2023, retail sales were 137% higher that day compared with the average day that month, Mitchel-Chesebro said.

According to data from Treez, there were more than two times, or 123% more customers on April 20 than any other single day in 2023. Because of the 2024 holiday falling on a weekend, which hasn't happened since 2019, Treez predicts this Saturday's sales will be 2.5 times higher than any other day in 2024. Customer counts for 4/20 have increased by 25% since 2020, according to Treez. 

Some of the top-selling products in 2023 included infused prerolls, shake/trim and edibles, which Mitchel-Chesebro said he expects to see this year, as well, though there is some market variability.

General Trends and Strategic Promotions

Mitchel-Chesebro said there are some sales observations that generally apply to most markets on 4/20.

Experienced consumers expect some sort of promotion, which may not be surprising, but the sales don’t have to be sweeping.

“It's not that the promotions are going to be bringing them all in droves, but it's something that many consumers do expect around this holiday,” he says. “There are categories where we see a really big boost in sales. So if we're expecting to see that, you might not want to employ as many discounts or promotions in those categories. So those would be ones like smaller categories, like infused foods.”

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One surprising trend BDSA noted in 2023 is that topicals saw a big increase. Another was shake/trim.

“That's one area where, if you want to bring in consumers, especially price-conscious consumers, those discounts on shake/trim/lite could yield a lot more as far as bringing in volume and bringing in bigger basket sizes,” Mitchel-Chesebro said.

On the other end of the pricing spectrum, higher end solventless products also tend to bring in your regular, more discerning customers, though prices have come down a bit in that category and there may not be as much “sticker shock,” he said.

“If you’re trying to boost sales in that category by, say, offering a cross promotion with a budget preroll, that might not be the best move. If you're going to try and offer cross promotions, try and offer cross promotions with things that you think that that cohort of consumers is going to be most drawn to,” he said.

Typically, if consumers are just going to buy one item, it’s going to be in the flower or vape categories, Mitchel-Chesebro said, so it might make sense to think about promotions around add-ons that people might not otherwise pick up.

“If somebody buys flower and they're going to add something else into their order, it's more likely than not to be an edible product. So offering those sort of cross promotions for items that are already sort of an add-on rather than a single-item purchase can be a really effective strategy in just boosting basket sizes and helping increase overall volume,” he said. “And not that consumers aren't going to come in without these promotions, but you're already expecting to see a lot of foot traffic on a day like 4/20. So you can get a lot of mileage out of these promotions.”

Balancing the promotions to ensure you’re not cutting into margins and reducing perceived value is key, and Mitchel-Chesebro said in 2023, retailers were discounting less than in 2022 when you compare equivalent average retail prices.

“If you look at that 4/20 holiday week in 2023 across all categories, across all markets, prices were five-and-a-half percent lower than non-holiday weeks. In 2022, they were seven-and-a-half percent lower,” he said. “So just because consumers may expect discounting, just because you see this discounting from your competitors, doesn't mean that you have to really race to the bottom or just cut prices overall to bring consumers in. You can still see this big boost with lesser discounting or more strategic discounting.”

Treez echoes this sentiment, and noted that according to its data, the average discount percentage on April 20, 2023, was more than 32%.

Another category that tends to perform well on 4/20 is apparel, Mitchel-Chesebro said.

“It’s a really small category not tied to cannabis, but it also can see higher margins than cannabis products when you're talking about a dispensary,” he says. “Offering discounts around your own brand and apparel can have some benefits in just seeing a little bit more sales increase and also free marketing for your brand or your retailer.”

States to Watch

Two states that Mitchel-Chesebro is watching closely are New Jersey and New York, which have both added significantly more retailers since last year’s 4/20.

In 2023, there were about 27 active retailers in the New Jersey market in April. This year, there are more than 130 with active licenses and permits. According to BDSA, New Jersey retailers collective have higher average retail prices than dispensaries in New York and Connecticut, Mitchel-Chesebro said.

“We know one of the biggest influencers of where consumers are going to buy their cannabis is retail convenience. I think that this increase in retail capacity is really going to be driving a lot more people toward the legal market, especially when you think about the Tri-State area,” Mitchel-Chesebro said. “We have Connecticut retailers open, we have more New York retailers open. Some of those are going to be offering cheaper prices than New Jersey retailers. But I think this convenience factor from the increased retail availability is going to be driving more consumers towards New Jersey retailers this year, and especially if they go about promotions in the right way.”

And despite the challenges New York has had standing up its licensed retailers, Mitchel-Chesebro predicts the holiday will help regulated dispensaries “come into their own.”

“We've seen licensing really pick up, cultivation capacity and just infrastructure overall has improved a lot in New York and that's brought prices down pretty significantly,” he said.

Despite the excitement and potential of those East Coast markets, there’s a market in the Midwest that might blow all others out of the water: Missouri, which saw more than $1 billion in cannabis sales in its first year of adult-use sales.

“Geographically, they're in a great position. They're next to Illinois as the main state in the region that they butt up against that has adult-use cannabis, and Illinois still has really high prices, a pretty small amount of brands and a low product variety,” he said. “So there were a lot of Illinois consumers who were crossing the border to buy Missouri cannabis in the first months of adult-use because of that price factor and because of the variety that they had.”

Last year, incremental daily sales in Missouri the week of 4/20 were 13% higher than non-holiday weeks with only a 2.5% discount, Mitchel-Chesebro said. And sales of shake/trim/lite alone nearly doubled in the state last year the week of 4/20 versus other weeks.

Missouri is a state Brightfield is also tracking, Zehner said, and noted some of the state-by-state nuances the firm expects to see this year.

“While 2024's 4/20 may not be a record-setter in every state, there will be many more consumers across the country sourcing their cannabis through regulated retailers this holiday, resulting in blockbuster sales,” he said of what is already traditionally the largest sales day for dispensaries. “It's worth keeping an eye on the performance in younger markets that have had strong openings, such as Maryland and Missouri, and to see how many consumers turn out in markets that had comparatively weak launches—including New York and Connecticut.”