Should New Approach North Dakota advocates succeed with their 2022 adult-use cannabis ballot measure this November, the state’s medical market would pretty much disappear.

While North Dakota officials have issued more than 8,200 medical cannabis ID cards to qualifying patients since voters approved Initiated Statutory Measure 5 with a 64% majority in 2016, the number of active patients would likely dwindle to fewer than 2,000 following adult-use legalization, The Associated Press reported.

North Dakota Medical Marijuana Division Director Jason Wahl told a legislative panel Sept. 12 that the state’s medical cannabis registry could shrink by more than 80% because, in part, New Approach ND’s 2022 measure would allow adults 21 and older to purchase greater amounts of cannabis or cannabis products, tax rates would remain the same and edibles would be allowed under adult-use legalization.

RELATED: Tracking the Number of Registered Medical Cannabis Patients by State

Under current medical cannabis law, North Dakota patients are limited to purchasing 2.5 ounces of dried cannabis flower in a 30-day period, but the 2022 ballot measure would allow those 21 and older to purchase up to 1 ounce of cannabis, 4 grams of concentrate or up to 500 milligrams of THC in an infused product—the possession limit—in a single visit.

Under the 2022 measure, adults 21 and older could potentially visit numerous dispensaries and purchase the 1-ounce possession limit multiple times in one day because “none of that is tracked,” Wahl told the legislative panel.

In addition, edibles, which were included in the 2016 voter-approved ballot initiative but later removed from the list of approved medical cannabis products by the state Legislature, would become legal under New Approach ND’s 2022 proposal.

Also, North Dakota’s current structure that includes a 5% sales tax plus local rates for medical cannabis would go unchanged under the adult-use proposal, the AP reported.

RELATED: 6 States That Could Legalize Cannabis Through 2022 Ballot Measures

The initiative aims to establish a licensed industry for cultivation, processing, retail and testing laboratories, requiring the Department of Health and Human Services, or another department or agency designated by the state Legislature, to establish a licensed program by Oct. 1, 2023. Under the measure, seven cultivation facilities and 18 retailers would be licensed.

North Dakota could expect $1.3 million in revenue during its following two-year budget cycle from application and registration fees for licensed operators, which would cover the cost of state oversight, Wahl told the panel.

The state Tax Department has yet to calculate the potential revenue that could come from adult-use sales, according to the AP.

• U.S. sales will grow from $25 billion in 2021 to $42 billion in 2026, which will make up 75% of total global cannabis sales
• Despite concerns surrounding inflation and economic and regulatory headwinds, legal cannabis sales in the U.S. will reach $27 billion by the end of 2022, a jump of 7% over 2021 sales of $25 billion
• Newer markets continue to see rapid sales growth and will be the primary driver of sales until 2026
• A slowed adoption rate in U.S. established markets will leave firms competing on high supply and low prices
• While the U.S. will continue dominating global sales over the next few years, there is potential from emerging global markets such as Germany and Mexico
  

LOUISVILLE, Colo., Sept. 13, 2022 – PRESS RELEASE – BDSA announced an update of its cannabis market forecast, a five-year rolling global forecast by country, state, province, channel, and category. The report projects annual global cannabis sales to grow from $30 billion in 2021 to $57 billion in 2026, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 13%. In the United States, cannabis sales will grow from $25 billion in 2021 to $42 billion in 2026, which will make up 75% of total global cannabis sales. Despite an inflationary environment and concerns about recession that dampened consumer spending, legal cannabis sales in the U.S. will reach $27 billion by the end of 2022, a jump of 7% over 2021 sales of $25 billion.

“The ‘hockey stick’ trend of sales growth seen in the early years of legal cannabis has passed, and economic and regulatory headwinds are exerting pressure on legal cannabis markets,” said Roy Bingham, CEO of BDSA. “Still, our updated forecast predicts that steady gains in developing U.S. markets will continue to drive single-digit annual growth in total U.S. legal sales in 2022, with continued growth prospects out to 2026.”

Adjustments to mature market forecasts stem partly from the continuation of the erosion of price in environments with high retail per capita numbers. Governments in Oregon and Washington have taken steps such as moratoriums on new licensing to combat chronic over-supply.

While sales have plateaued and even fallen in some of the most mature markets such as California, Colorado, Washington and Oregon, driven by declines in retail prices and a challenging macroeconomic situation, newer markets continue to see brisk sales growth. An example of this is the Illinois market, which is expected to bring in approximately $2 billion in total sales in 2022, a 14% increase over 2021 sales.

RELATED: Illinois Cracks $1 Billion in Adult-Use Cannabis Sales So Far in 2022

The total U.S. market continues to see topline growth, though some of the most established markets are starting to see sales slow. These markets may soon face saturated consumer penetration as BDSA data reports that the past six-month adult adoption topped 50% in fully legal markets in the spring. A slowed adoption rate will leave firms competing on high supply and low prices. Actual losses have come for the first time in some mature markets, such as Nevada. The first-mover advantage has been negated by access in newer markets, prices receding, and regulatory reforms stalling.

“Though mature legal cannabis markets in the U.S. saw sales soften in 2022, the cannabis market is still forecast to see topline growth in 2022, driven by strong sales in new and emerging markets, such as the populous states of New Jersey and New York,” Bingham said. “The U.S. will continue to dominate global sales over the next few years, but we see potential from emerging global markets such as Germany and Mexico.”

New markets will be the significant sales driver until 2026, as the number of non-legal states is rapidly dwindling. So far in 2022, New Jersey has launched adult-use sales, with New York expected to follow suit later this year. The launch of these two markets represents an expansion of legal cannabis access to approximately 22 million adults, who are forecast to contribute roughly $5 billion to the $42 billion legal sales total in 2026.

While the most dramatic sales declines are expected to hit mature adult-use markets, medical markets have also been affected, as patients have access to increasing variety and lower prices in neighboring adult-use markets. This trend of declining medical sales is also present in the medical channel of states that recently have passed adult-use legalization, such as Arizona, which launched adult-use sales in early 2021. Since then, medical sales have sharply fallen. BDSA projects annual dollar sales in Arizona’s medical channel will be 30% lower than the 2021 annual dollar sales total and roughly half the annual sales total seen in 2020—the last full year of medical-only sales. By contrast, the Colorado medical channel still saw modest growth in annual sales for roughly two years after the launch of its adult-use market in 2014.

Three people were shot early Sunday morning in an attempted robbery at an indoor illicit cultivation facility in San Leandro, Calif.

Officers responded after 4 a.m. to the reported robbery located at 2000 Adams Ave., the San Leandro Police Department (SLPD) said in a news release Sept. 11. 

Officers discovered there was a shootout between the facility workers and the burglary suspects, which left the site manager and one suspect in critical condition, and a facility security guard in stable condition.

Matthew Barajas, criminal investigations division commander and lieutenant with the SLPD, confirmed with Cannabis Business Times Sept. 12 that the cultivation facility did not have a license to operate, as law enforcement was still investigating the grow’s legal status at the time of the release.

Barajas says the facility housed roughly 7,000 to 8,000 illicit cannabis plants in various growth stages and that the SLPD believes the suspects may have been attempting to take “processed, manicured cannabis, which was strewn all over the inside of the business complex.”

He adds that law enforcement will investigate who oversees the facility and that there may be a link between the grow owners and the East Coast.

According to the release, officers located “a U-Haul van fleeing the scene at a high rate of speed. The U-Haul failed to yield to officers, and a vehicle pursuit into the City of Oakland commenced,” which led to a roughly 20-minute chase.

During the chase, the suspects switched vehicles and jumped into a silver Jeep, but while switching vehicles, police caught one suspect on foot. 

Officers continued to follow the Jeep for “several more minutes” but it was eventually suspended. Two more suspects, who police described as “two younger-aged Hispanic males dressed in dark clothing,” fled the scene on foot and have not yet been captured. Police recovered the Jeep and U-Haul as evidence, according to the release.

Barajas said discovering an illicit cannabis grow in San Leandro is not uncommon.

“[Illicit grows] are everywhere,” he says. “So, this is not unique to see a grow shootout at an unlicensed and unpermitted marijuana grow. It’s definitely a regional problem. Only because of the position I worked in, in my time here, I’ve come across hundreds in the city of San Leandro. But it’s in every city in the East Bay, for sure.” 

He also noted an attempted robbery that led to a shooting at Silverstreak (formerly Blüm) cannabis dispensary in San Leandro in early January.

“As officers responded to the call, a neighboring business employee also called to report a burglary in progress. The witness said several suspects were running from the business with masks on,” according to a news release.

As officers arrived at the scene, they attempted to detain a suspect wearing a mask but were unsuccessful when he fled the scene in car with two other suspects. According to the release, the suspect retrieved a handgun, and an SLPD officer fired. Two people were shot and hospitalize with non-life-threatening injuries.

Silverstreak dispensary is now permanently closed.

Florida-based cannabis giant Trulieve recently doubled its contribution to the Smart & Safe Florida political committee with another $5 million toward a 2024 ballot initiative to legalize adult-use cannabis.

Now with $10 million invested in the reform effort, Trulieve’s second financial input came less than a month after the multistate operator contributed its original $5 million to the ballot campaign. So far, the committee has not received any other monetary contributions as of a Sept. 2 filing period, according to the Florida Division of Elections.

Smart & Safe Florida, chaired by David Bellamy of the music duo the Bellamy Brothers, filed its campaign measure Aug. 8 with the Division of Elections and received approval Aug. 23 to circulate the petition.

HED: Trulieve, The Bellamy Brothers Back Adult-Use Cannabis Legalization Measure for Florida’s 2024 Ballot

The Adult Personal Use of Marijuana—the ballot measure’s title—will need 891,589 valid signatures by early 2024: The deadline for signature verification is Feb. 1, 2024, with election officials needing 30 days to check signatures before that deadline.

The measure aims to legalize the possession, purchase and use of cannabis products and accessories for adults 21 and older, including up to 1 ounce of dried flower or 5 grams of concentrate. The measure would allow Medical Marijuana Treatment Centers (MMTCs) and other state-licensed entities to acquire, cultivate, process, manufacture, sell, and distribute such products and accessories.

In addition, the Florida Legislature would be able to enact legislation for the licensure of entities that are not currently MMTCs—the overarching term for vertically integrated businesses as defined in the state’s medical cannabis program—to participate in the state-legal market for adults.

Currently, there are 22 MMTCs serving Florida’s roughly 750,000 registered patients through 474 retail facilities, according to the Office of Medical Marijuana Use’s weekly update from Sept. 9. Trulieve is the state’s largest MMTC with 120 dispensaries, more than doubling any other operator. Verano has 59 MÜV dispensaries, Curaleaf has 51 dispensaries, Ayr Wellness has 51 Liberty Health Sciences dispensaries and Parallel has 45 Surterra Wellness dispensaries.

“It’s all about improving access,” Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel about her company’s contribution when Smart & Safe Florida launched last month.

“We came into this with a mission to provide access to high-quality products that are safe and have an appropriate value proposition to give folks control over their—in the original days—medical journey,” she said. “I don’t think that changes here. I mean, in effect we are, at our core, about expanding the opportunity for access to safe, legal product, which is what this would allow us to continue to do.”

With the $10 million in contributions so far, Smart & Safe Florida has sent $5 million to Missouri-based Axiom Strategies and $1.5 million to Arizona-based Vanguard Field Strategies of Arizona—to assist with the signature-gathering campaign—Florida Politics reported.

The 2024 initiative campaign comes after a pair of 2022 ballot measures were struck down by the Florida Supreme Court in April 2021 and June 2021, when justices ruled in 5-2 decisions that:

• a “Make it Legal Florida” initiative misled voters by failing to disclose that cannabis would still be illegal under federal law; and
• a “Sensible Florida Inc.” initiative misled voters because the text of the proposed amendment itself did not limit the personal “use” of cannabis like the ballot summary led voters to believe.
  

Advocates behind the Trulieve and Bellamy Brothers-backed 2024 initiative hope to avoid those judicial hiccups.

“Almost half of Americans now legally enjoy this freedom,” David Bellamy said last month in a Smart & Safe Florida video launching the campaign.

“And we know Floridians are ready,” his brother, Howard Bellamy, said.

“More than ready,” David said.

“To finally stop arresting adults who use marijuana,” Howard said.

“To ensure everyone’s safety in a system that allows adults over 21 to safely use cannabis products and avoid illicit or illegal sales and let freedom ring in Florida,” David said.