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Is Your State One of the Next 12 to Legalize Marijuana?

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Noelle Skodzinski, Editor, Cannabis Business TimesNoelle Skodzinski, Editor, Cannabis Business Times

By Noelle Skodzinski

In an ideal world for those in the cannabis industry, as well as for advocates and enthusiasts nationwide, cannabis would be made legal in every state in the country by the 2016 elections, if not sooner.

Let's face it: Americans are consuming marijuana, legal or not. A recent Gallup poll found that nearly half of Americans say they have tried marijuana. And, let's face this, too: If those Americans had all been caught, nearly half the country could potentially either be in jail or have served jail time—including our current President (who has publicly admitted to smoking marijuana), a number of former presidents, as well as presidential hopefuls. How's that for hypocrisy at work?

While nationwide legalization is not going to happen any time soon, we can all hold out hopes for the states that have an actual fighting chance at legalizing recreational marijuana, and establishing a retail market that is regulated like alcohol, between now and the 2016 election.

An article today in USA Today lists 11 states that 24/7 Wall Street (which provides analysis for equity investors) believes to be most likely to legalize marijuana for recreational use by adults, based on factors such as whether or not marijuana is decriminalized in the state, whether medical marijuana is legal, the number of marijuana-related arrests and estimates on residents' reported marijuana consumption.

Those states next up to legalize marijuana, according to 24/7 Wall Street, are:

  1. California
  2. Connecticut
  3. Delaware
  4. Maryland
  5. Maine
  6. Massachusetts
  7. Minnesota
  8. Nevada
  9. New York
  10. Rhode Island
  11. Vermont

However, I'd like to throw one more state into the mix, not for exactly the same rationale as 24/7 Wall Street used, but for valid reasons nonetheless:

12. Arizona: The Marijuana Policy Project has formed the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol in Arizona, and it has filed a ballot initiative with the Arizona Secreatary of State. In order to make the ballot, it has to collect more than 150,000 signatures. As of Aug. 14, the group had collected more than 50,000 signatures, according to the campaign's website.

According to the Behavior Research Center's Rocky Mountain Poll released in June, 53 percent of Arizonans favor legalization of personal marijuana possession.

The potential negative for the state is that it is not among those that have decriminalized possession of small amounts of marijuana, which makes sense as a first step before widespread legalization. (That is not to suggest states couldn't or wouldn't legalize recreational marijuana before even decriminalizing it.)

Still, the public and industry support in Arizona seems to be there to get the initiative on the ballot and get it passed, and as far as I have heard, optimism is ... well ... high.

In case you're wondering why New Hampshire isn't on either list (and I can only speak for my own reasons here, not for 24/7 Wall Street), it's the only state in New England that has not decriminalized marijuana. Some hope does exist for the state, however, as a decriminalization bill—HB 618, which would have removed criminal penalties for possession of up to a half ounce of marijuana—was approved by a very wide margin (297 to 67) in the Arizona House earlier this year, according to a report in Cannabis Business Times; but hope for the state's move to end prohibition was deflated a bit when the bill was then tabled in the N.H. Senate.

Reasons for hope also surfaced in January 2014, when the New Hampshire House of Representatives voted (by a margin of 170-162) "to approve a bill that would legalize, tax, and regulate marijuana for use by adults in the 'Live Free or Die' state. This was the first time any state legislative chamber has approved such a bill," as the Marijuana Policy Project reports.

Also according to the MPP, new polling (July) found that "60% of Granite Staters support legalizing marijuana and 72% support decriminalization."

Mason Tvert, communications director for industry advocacy and lobbying organization Marijuana Policy Project, explains the current status of any legalization initiatives—or lack thereof—in the state: "... There are no plans for a ballot initiative in New Hampshire because there is no ballot initiative process in New Hampshire. Our focus right now is on passing a bill through the legislature that would remove criminal penalties for simple possession and designate it a civil offense punishable by a fine, similar to a traffic ticket," he says.

"Unfortunately, the governor there has been a roadblock to sensible marijuana policy reform. We believe that New Hampshire will be among the first handful of states to end marijuana prohibition via state legislature—their House of Representatives was the first legislative chamber in history to approve a measure repealing marijuana prohibition—but it will likely be another couple years. The state is also still in the process of implementing the medical marijuana law that we helped pass, which has been taking forever."

As a New Jersey resident, I'd love to see The Garden State make the list, but it's far from even being a finalist. As most of the industry knows, N.J. has a gargantuan fly in the marijuana ointment: Governor Chris Christie. Christie has declared, a number of times, his outright opposition to medical and recreational marijuana, and has sworn that, in the event he is elected president in 2016, he will put the kibosh on states that have legalized marijuana, despite the fact that he's a Republican (a party based largely on the premise of less Federal government interference, more state rights).

He also ignores the fact that the marjority of his constituents support legalization. In fact, N.J. has one of the highest levels of support for marijuana legalization—with 58 percent strongly supporting or somewhat supporting it.

Fortunately for the cannabis industry, not to mention the nation, Christie is trailing behind 10 other Republican hopefuls for a presidential bid.

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