Cannabis legalization advocates in South Dakota could be facing defeat come Election Day.
That’s because 50% of likely voters plan to oppose a 2024 ballot measure to legalize adult-use cannabis, while 45% plan to support the proposal and 5% are unsure, according to a survey released Oct. 24 by Emerson College Polling that was conducted in partnership with KELO-TV and The Hill.
The survey was conducted Oct. 19-22 and included a sample of 825 likely voters.
South Dakota’s proposal, Initiated Measure 29, would legalize cannabis use, possession, distribution and home grows for individuals 21 years and older. The proposal establishes a possession limit of 2 ounces of dried flower, 16 grams of concentrate or 1,600 milligrams of THC. Individuals could grow up to six plants at home for personal use but no more than 12 plants per household.
“The marijuana ballot initiative has the most support among voters under 30, at 68%, and most opposition among voters over 70, at 64%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said of the survey results.
The measure would also restrict where individuals could possess or consume cannabis, such as near schools or where tobacco is prohibited. It also would allow employers to restrict an employee’s use of cannabis, while property owners could regulate the use of cannabis on their property.
To satisfy the state’s single-subject rule, the measure does not establish a commercial marketplace for licensed cultivation or dispensary sales. However, South Dakota lawmakers could adopt legislation to allow for a commercial marketplace should Initiated Measure 29 pass.
The Emerson College Polling results released Thursday largely mirror a Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy survey released in June. In that poll, nearly 52% of registered voters in South Dakota said they opposed Initiated Measure 29, while 41.6% said they supported the measure and 6.6% were undecided.
While those aged 18-34 were split on the measure in the June survey, voters 65 and older opposed the measure, 58% to 38%. Meanwhile, 71% of South Dakota Democrats support adult-use cannabis legalization and 68% of Republicans oppose the measure, according to that poll.
Matthew Schweich, the executive director of the measure’s sponsor, South Dakotans for Better Marijuana Laws (SDBML), indicated doubt in the polling numbers earlier this year.
“We believe that the level of support among voters for Measure 29 is higher than the figure in this latest poll,” he said of the Mason-Dixon survey, pointing to the 54.2% of voters who passed the group’s 2020 legalization attempt before those results were overturned by the state’s Supreme Court based on the state’s single-subject rule.
“It’s difficult to explain how support could have dropped 12 percentage points in just four years,” Schweich said. “That type of rapid decrease in public support for cannabis legalization has not occurred in other states.”
SDBML also put an adult-use legalization question before voters in the 2022 election, but that measure failed with 53% of South Dakota voters opposed.
But one main difference between the 2020 and 2022 elections was that the voter turnout was higher during the former, driven by the presidential race. Specifically, 74% of South Dakota voters cast ballots in the 2020 election, while 59% of voters cast ballots in the 2022 election, according to the South Dakota secretary of state’s office.
High voter turnout in presidential elections is usually favorable for cannabis legalization measures: All five states with legalization measures on the 2020 ballot had victories, while only two of five states had majority support for legalization measures in 2022.
South Dakota’s most recent poll comes on the heels of Schweich calling on legalization opponent, Protecting SD Kids, to take down a “demonstrably false and deceptive advertisement” that ran on Facebook and Hulu and to refrain from any attempt to run the advertisement on television.
The advertisement indicated that Measure 29 wouldn’t just legalize cannabis but would “cultivate a whole new generation of meth, fentanyl and opioid abusers.”
Measure 29, however, has nothing to do with those other drugs. It would only legalize cannabis and cannabis-related products for those 21 years and older.
Twenty-four states in the U.S. have legalized adult-use cannabis. Florida and North Dakota also have adult-use legalization measures on November’s ballot.
