New Poll Shows Florida May Lack Voter Support to Pass Adult-Use Legislation in November

Florida cannabis businesses, advocates and enthusiasts celebrated a win on April 1, when the state’s Supreme Court decided the ballot language for a citizen-initiated constitutional amendment to legalize adult-use cannabis was sufficient to appear on the November 2024 election ballot, after state Attorney General Ashley Moody had filed an argument against allowing the measure to go before voters. But with a 60% supermajority vote needed at the voting booths in November to approve Amendment 3, a new Ipsos poll suggests voter support may not be sufficient. 

Fifty-six percent of registered voters in Florida say they would vote in favor of the ballot measure that would allow adults to purchase and possess personal amounts of cannabis, according to the Ipsos poll. Forty percent say they would oppose it, and 4% are unsure.

The latest poll conflicts with a November 2023 survey conducted by pollsters at the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, which found that 67% of voters said they would support the constitutional amendment and just 28% of those surveyed said they’d vote against it.

“Among 13 states that have legalized adult-use cannabis through citizen-initiated ballot measures, only Arizona, in the 2020 election, has met that 60% threshold. New Jersey (67.1%) and Maryland (67.2%) voters approved legislative-referred referendums,” Cannabis Business Times reported.

Still, the initiative, sponsored by Smart & Safe Florida, has raked in substantial financial backing. Tallahassee-based multistate cannabis operator (MSO) Trulieve had contributed more than $40 million prior to the Supreme Court’s April 1 ruling, CBT reported. Following the ruling, Trulieve was joined by six other MSOs in contributing an additional $15 million in funding for the campaign, Smart & Safe Florida announced April 3, hoping to help the campaign get the 60% supermajority vote needed at the polls.

“Should voters cross the 60% threshold in November, adults 21 and older would be able to purchase and possess up to 3 ounces of dried flower or 5 grams of concentrate for personal use with the effective date of the amendment coming six months after the election,” CBT reported. The Florida Legislature would determine a process for licensing additional market entrants.

Florida’s cannabis market, currently only legal for medical use, is already one of the largest in the U.S., generating more than $2 billion in sales 2023, according to estimates by data and analytics firm Brightfield Group.