2018 Market Predictions

Departments - Upfront | Highlights

Industry experts from legal adult-use states share forecasts about their respective markets for the upcoming year.

December 5, 2017

Between watching a staunch prohibitionist take the helm at the Department of Justice and states developing new cannabis regulations, 2017 has been a tumultuous year for the cannabis industry. Looking ahead, 2018 might be more of the same. Here, experts share their predictions on what is going to happen in their states.


“Oregon is seeing two unique markets forming. One is of large scale, focused on volume and low price. The other is one of smaller craft, organically produced product. It will be important to service the full spectrum of consumer demands. Production efficiency will continue to be important as pricing pressures increase across the board.” – Dan McAllister, Founder & Head Grower, Gnome Grown


“Colorado needs to sharpen its focus to stay relevant with talent, money and business looking outside for more lucrative opportunities. We predict the difference-maker in this mature, saturated market will be efficiencies, new products, branding and technology. There is so much room for improvement, and ultimately, these are things that make any business stand out. The first legal state is a perfect breeding ground for the best and brightest to take their companies to the next level, possibly leaving a wake of failed businesses in their path.” – Erik Williams and Meg Sanders, Founding Partners, Will & Way Consulting


“I predict that with easier access and education around cannabis we will see more active, healthy and responsible adults integrating cannabis and specifically CBD products into their lives. At Bloom Farms we’re very aware of this trend and are now offering several CBD-rich products to meet the demand.” – Michael Ray, Founder & CEO, Bloom Farms


“After we passed Question 1 in November 2016, the [Joint Select] Committee on Marijuana Legalization Implementation came up with an omnibus bill that tweaked the initiative. The legislature passed it, but the governor vetoed it. I think there is a decent chance the governor may choose not to implement any marijuana regulation bill [through the end of his term] at the end of 2018. We aren’t hoping for that, but he hasn’t worked with the committee. If he does choose to implement, and the legislature passes a bill in February or March, we might have recreational marijuana sales in early 2019. If not, it could have to wait until spring or summer of 2019.” – David Boyer, Maine Political Director, Marijuana Policy Project (MPP)


“Nevada’s cannabis industry is showing strong promise heading into 2018, with many factors showing the potential that groups have been investing into for years, but also with a strong balance of support from the consumers across the state. ... Just from the tourism aspect, Nevada is already ahead of both Washington and Colorado, which leads to tremendous potential to service those huge consumer demands as the market works to evolve in all phases.” – Ranson K. Shepherd, Co-Owner, Pegasus Nevada/Virtue


“With adult-use cannabis sales set to commence in Massachusetts in 2018, we are excited to see the Cannabis Control Commission working diligently to implement common-sense regulations. With the program starting on the right foot, we believe the market will be an example to other states on how to transition from a medical- only market to a dual market. Through my work as a founding board member of the Responsible Regulation Alliance, we are working hard to advise on regulations that impact both current and future participants in the market. We also believe that potential patients who have not visited a physician for whatever reason will greatly benefit from adult-use cannabis sales. All in all, a combination of common-sense regulation, more access for customers and patients, and great operators, Massachusetts can be one of the leaders in both medical and adult-use cannabis sales.” – Joseph Lekach, CEO, Massachusetts Patient Foundation


“As Alaska’s supply continues to slowly catch up to demand, I predict by the end of 2018 we will see average gram prices drop from $24/gram to $16/gram. Alaska will revise its testing regulations to require smaller sampling sizes (maximum 2 lbs. per test) and require individual testing for flower and trim. By year end, the Alaska’s Marijuana Control Board will begin to limit the number of licenses it issues to cultivators and retailers. The size of the state along with limited enforcement resources will play the biggest role in this policy change. Alaska will be the first state to allow recreational on-site consumption in 2018. Strains from Alaska will continue to trend in high 20-percent-plus total THC as consumers are wanting the highest THC content possible when paying higher per-gram prices than the Lower 48. State tax revenue will triple in 2018 as prices drop and legal businesses begin to compete for market share. Legal businesses will see record earnings as quality, variety, convenience and testing advantages take their toll on the black market.” – Gary Morgan, Owner of Southeast Moog Droog


“One thing we are looking forward to, especially for producer/processors, is in January we will launch the state’s new traceability system, which is, as producers know, the seed-to-sale traceability system that we’re converting from one vendor to another vendor. We believe the new system will meet the robust needs of Washington’s maturing marketplace and give us improved data that the Liquor and Cannabis Board is seeking. The market continues to grow in Washington state as new stores will be coming online in 2018. The revenue forecasts for the state continue to escalate, as well. Washington is expected to bring in over $1.5 billion in revenue over the next five years.” – Brian Smith, Communications Director, Washington State Liquor and Cannabis Board